There is no way to say for certain if Iraq would have fallen apart on its own by now, but there is very little doubt that the Molotov cocktail thrown into the country that accelerated things tremendously was George II's ill-advised, probably illegal, and trumped-up invasion of Iraq. Not to mention the huge toll it took and is still taking, and will be taking on this country for decades to come.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27789229
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