Gun Buybacks and "Logic"

There are a few scattered gun buy back programs being announced or pursued by local governments and law enforcement, primarily because Washington DC is in its usual paralyzed state...largely by the torrent of NRA money flowing through the halls of Congress.  This is bringing out some people who don't mind showing their ignorance...of either simple mathematical probability or logic, or both.

It is impossible to gauge the effectiveness of a gun buyback program in advance because it is not possible to tell if a particular gun belongs to a nut case, or will be stolen by or belong to one in the future.  It is impossible to gauge the effectiveness of a buyback after the fact, because once a gun is destroyed...the probability is absolutely zero that it will ever be used to take a life or multiple lives. 

Likewise, it is dangerous to assume cause and effect afterwards.  Australia had a quite successful gun buy back after a mass shooting outraged the country (and their politicians actually work for the people they represent).  They have not had a mass shooting since...but can the two be linked?  Not necessarily nor with any certainty, although they also outlawed semi-automatic assault weapons permanently at the same time so there are multiple factors at work here.

The only unassailable truth is that if the 'right' gun is part of a buy back, it can save many, many lives.  If Nancy Lanza had decided that she really didn't need to own a death-dealing assault-style semi-automatic weapon in time, not only would many innocent children and adults be alive...but she might be as well although it seems there were plenty of other weapons in easy reach of Adam Lanza. 

People who try to equate through logic or probability the effects of a gun buy back are the same gullible idiots who keep the casinos in Las Vegas so profitably afloat.  It doesn't matter how many times you have flipped a coin and how many results have been the same -- every flip is still a 50/50 proposition.